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Canada job gains double forecasts but wage growth cools

In a surprising turn of events, Canada's job market kicked off the year with a significant surge in employment, doubling forecasts.

According to Statistics Canada, the country added an impressive 37,000 jobs in January, surpassing expectations by a wide margin.

Even more encouraging, the unemployment rate saw its first decline in over a year, dropping to 5.7%.

However, while job gains are certainly cause for optimism, there are indications of a cooling trend in wage growth, suggesting potential implications for the economy.

Wage growth for permanent employees decelerated to 5.3%, down from 5.7% the previous month.

This development may influence the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decisions in the coming months.

Analysts believe these numbers provide policymakers with more leeway to consider interest rate cuts, especially amidst signs of a slowing economy.

Economists anticipate the possibility of an easing cycle beginning as early as April to July.

The report also highlights a significant aspect—the balance between supply and demand in the labor market.

Despite continued job growth, population growth, largely driven by immigration, continues to outpace employment gains, underscoring a potential imbalance in the economy.

This suggests that while the job market is expanding, demand may be cooling due to high borrowing costs and other factors.

Nevertheless, the data presents a nuanced picture of the Canadian labor market, with some sectors experiencing growth while others face challenges.

Employment gains were widespread across services-producing sectors, including wholesale and retail trade, finance, and education. However, sectors like accommodation and food services, professional and technical services, and healthcare experienced declines.

Regionally, Ontario led the way with notable increases in employment, demonstrating its resilience as Canada's most populous province.

As Canada navigates these economic dynamics, policymakers will continue to monitor the situation closely, balancing the need for economic stability with the pursuit of sustainable growth and prosperity for all Canadians.

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Keith Baker | | 604.723.5363

Jackie Zerbe | | 604.724.6982

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